Is this 1997 or 2000?

We take a quick look at the three situations.

Recent Fed policy has been on a path of loosening but there may be changes in the wind as inflation has remained sticky. In ’97, we had just gotten past a major tightening cycle in ’94 and two subsequent years of solid returns fueled by the Dot Com craze. In 2022, we passed the Fed cycle and two years of solid returns fueled by AI and government stimulus.

Are we closer to the 2000 bubble or just beginning a long run bull set off by AI innovation?

Here are the key economic differences between 1997, 2000, and 2024: